The Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out. How many storms can North Carolina expect this year?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and Colorado State University has released its forecast for the number of storms expected in the Caribbean, Gulf, and along the East Coast.

Here are their calculations and what they may mean for North Carolina.

A busier-than-average hurricane season

Colorado State researchers use current weather patterns as well as historical data to forecast the hurricane season each year.

In the 2025 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, Colorado State University predicts above-normal hurricane activity with more and stronger storms than average, including:

• ▪ 17 named storms, which is more than the 14.4 average that occurred between 1991 and 2020
• ▪ 9 hurricanes, compared to an average of 7.2
• ▪ 4 major hurricanes, compared to 3.2 on average

How many major storms could make landfall?

Before a storm forms, it is impossible to predict whether or not it will make landfall and where. However, Colorado State says historical data and current patterns suggest:

• ▪ There’s a 51% chance of a major storm making landfall somewhere on the continental U.S. coastline (compared to a 43% chance from 1880 to 2020)
• ▪ There’s a 26% chance of major storm hitting the U.S. East Coast (including North Carolina) , compared to a 21% chance on average
• ▪ There’s a 33% chance of a major storm hitting the Gulf Coast

Remember that a hurricane or tropical storm does not have to make landfall in North Carolina to have an impact on the state; storms that landed elsewhere have had disastrous consequences here.

What weather patterns will drive this year’s hurricane season?

One factor is ocean temperatures, and Colorado State reports that while surface-water temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, they are not matching last year’s record highs.

The current La Niña, which has been in place since December, is expected to dissipate in the coming months, leading to neural conditions. Typically, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states,

Hurricanes are more likely to develop and strengthen during La Niña, so it’s encouraging that this one will pass before June 1.

Forecasters at Columbia Climate School say there is “a strong preference” for neutral weather through November.

How accurate were 2024 hurricane season forecasts?

Last year’s season was extremely active, with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, just as Colorado State forecasters predicted in April 2024 and their June 2024 update.

The university predicted 23 named storms in April and increased that to 25 by July, exceeding the mark, according to researchers. In 2024, there were eighteen named storms.

When is North Carolina most likely to see a hurricane in 2025?

Colorado State University does not attempt to time hurricanes in its seasonal forecast.

But the Farmers’ Almanac boldly predicts that:

• ▪ A hurricane will threaten Florida’s Gulf coast between Aug. 8 and 11, 2025, then move northeast and along the southern coast.
• ▪ On the same dates the next month, Sept. 8-11, 2025, there will be a hurricane threat on the Atlantic coast.

What storm names are on the horizon?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will begin with Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.

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