On Thursday, the White House withdrew Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, signaling Republican concerns about losing their fragile House majority before the midterms.
The move stemmed from worries that Stefanik’s exit from Congress could weaken the GOP’s slim edge and jeopardize President Donald Trump’s legislative goals, as he hinted in a Truth Social post.
Despite no apparent issues with Senate confirmation or any rift with Trump—who called her “one of my greatest allies” on Thursday—the decision was made to protect the party’s numbers.
Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House against the Democrats’ 213, with four seats vacant, making their majority one of the narrowest in recent history. An unexpected death or losses in upcoming special elections could tip the balance.
CBS News sources indicated that Stefanik’s nomination was shelved—and ultimately scrapped—due to the risk of a Democrat winning a special election to replace her in New York’s rural northeast district, which she won by 24 points in November.
Some speculated that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul might delay such an election to keep the seat empty, further pressuring the GOP. Stefanik, who never resigned her House seat, would have had to vacate it for the UN role.
The White House’s hesitation comes amid signs that Trump’s “MAGA 2.0” momentum may be fading, according to Axios. Trump is pushing House Speaker Mike Johnson to pass a major spending bill before the April recess, aiming to secure the border, maintain tax cuts, boost the economy, and enhance government efficiency.
Johnson emphasized this priority on Monday, underscoring the GOP’s determination to deliver for Trump.
Recent elections have heightened GOP unease. In Pennsylvania, a Democrat won a state Senate seat in a district Trump carried by 15 points, flipping control of the chamber. In Florida, a special election next week to replace Trump’s National Security Adviser Michael Waltz has Republicans on edge. The GOP candidate, state Sen.
Randy Fine, trails in fundraising, with less than $93,000 on hand compared to his Democratic opponent’s $1.3 million. Private polling shows Fine down by three points, and a loss—or even a tight race—could signal trouble for Trump’s agenda, embolden Democrats, and push moderate Republicans to distance themselves, per The Wall Street Journal.
A second Florida special election to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz is expected to stay safely Republican, while a third in Arizona this summer, following Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s death on March 13, favors Democrats.
In New York, Stefanik’s now-canceled nomination had drawn over eight GOP contenders and a Democratic dairy farmer, Blake Gendebien, for a potential special election that’s no longer needed. For now, the GOP is playing it safe, prioritizing their razor-thin House control.
