If the Mexican cartels are concerned about President Donald Trump’s plans for them, it did not appear so tonight.
If only because someone who was concerned would probably not show a reporter the guns he had just smuggled from the United States or the fentanyl he was about to ship back north. Not to mention a safe house full of migrants preparing to cross illegally at the border wall.
And yet, that is what we witnessed while spending two nights with members of one of Mexico’s largest cartels during the week of Trump’s inauguration.
They asked us not to reveal which cartel, but it is safe to assume you have heard the name, as has Trump.
The president formally designated Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations through executive order and threatened to use the US military against them. Deploying the US military to the border is also intended to deter cartel smuggling.
The purpose of our time with the group was to learn how the cartel is reacting to being directly targeted by the new administration. The collective response was a shrug.
“We are not worried. “This is day-to-day,” one cartel member explained. “This is what we are going to do.”
It is business as usual, they say, as they unload two rifles and three handguns from concealed compartments in an SUV that had just crossed the border from the US. To be clear, they went through an official port of entry, right past the border guards.
They claim that every gun sold by this group is purchased in the United States and shipped south.
According to the Mexican Department of Foreign Relations, 70% to 90% of guns in Mexico came from and were transported through the United States.
“Because we are all aware that they are readily available in the United States. They sell them in stores, which is not common in Mexico,” said a cartel member. “You must keep a very careful record [here]. Not everyone [in Mexico] is approved for these types of weapons, and not just anyone is sold or licensed. “In the United States, yes.”
Trump appears unconcerned about American guns being smuggled south, but he is extremely concerned about fentanyl flowing north.
Shortly after the guns were unloaded, the cartel loaded five sandwich-sized packages of fentanyl into the same SUV, storing them in a hidden compartment beneath the center console.
With 10,000 pills, the street value is $50,000 or more, potentially leading to an untold number of overdose deaths. The ease with which they can be smuggled has fundamentally altered the drug trade, in horrifying ways.
The CDC estimates that the fentanyl trade has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, and it shows no signs of slowing down tonight.
Many believe that by designating cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, Trump is paving the way for the deployment of US special forces in Mexico. However, cartel members tell me that special operators have been present for years.
“They have been here for a while. “They have been working directly and training personnel here,” a cartel smuggler stated. “The U.S. military has sent people here to Mexico for that.”
The SUV took off shortly after. The group later informed us that it had safely crossed the border.
One night, in another part of this Mexican border town, we were invited into a nondescript house in an otherwise unremarkable neighbourhood.
Inside, we were greeted by a half dozen armed men and two Indian families, who were about to be smuggled into the United States.
Human smuggling is the second-most profitable aspect of this organized crime group’s operations.
“There is a lot of demand,” explained one masked smuggler.
Business has been good, and he believes it will improve due to some of Trump’s immigration policies.
He believes that mass deportations may result in more customers. Deploying the military to the border allows the group to raise their prices.
“They will need our services more,” he said. The pitch to migrants is that they will be unable to cross without the organization’s assistance.
According to the US government and independent experts, cartel-related human smuggling increased significantly during the Biden administration. Hundreds of thousands of people were transported to the border, often in deplorable conditions, while cartels made billions of dollars.
Trump has pledged to take action against them. Smugglers, on the other hand, have experienced little change.
“The demand is still there,” a smuggler informed me. “The deal is already completed. We can not do anything. Whatever changes there, we must continue to send people [to the United States].”
They all admitted that a renewed focus on their illicit activities would make them more difficult to carry out. But the idea that it can be completely stopped, they claimed, is a joke for a simple reason. Demand.
As long as the United States continues to consume massive amounts of drugs and migrants are desperate to enter its borders, they believe their business will thrive. Attacking these issues solely from the supply side, by targeting cartels, will not make them stop.
Who knows if this is all macho bravado, attempting to appear tough in front of a camera-equipped reporter.
For the time being, however, drugs and smuggled migrants continue to flow. Whether Trump can change this remains to be seen.
